Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 22.794334 25.934687 29.317118 33.227113 37.618344 42.393628 47.975809
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 18.170025 22.435143 27.379960 33.520355 40.923990 49.545115 60.326655
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.495330 20.168117 25.847350 33.228289 42.535032 53.845467 68.594902
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.704669 18.685557 24.995279 33.528011 44.712764 58.815473 77.877933
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.631251 17.922928 24.868255 34.583717 47.744194 64.860889 88.703833
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.262208 16.590026 23.818609 34.253985 48.826740 68.330489 96.259851
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.670993 14.768780 21.908917 32.531625 47.801878 68.800482 99.664775
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.073302 14.301445 21.831069 33.331219 50.283856 74.148815 110.023504
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.569040 13.914556 21.817086 34.186611 52.852885 79.707939 120.925627
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.856985 13.138908 21.151145 33.998277 53.834691 82.984966 128.639257
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.161937 12.323527 20.351088 33.525872 54.321822 85.510298 135.310788
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.663147 11.777900 19.921413 33.581133 55.591209 89.231728 143.921017
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.287223 11.415083 19.771908 34.095382 57.648944 94.325863 155.012011
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.887381 10.977247 19.465838 34.328788 59.263607 98.808475 165.379652
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.435872 10.406236 18.886976 34.051836 59.998807 101.893847 173.622659
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.127257 10.061871 18.663909 34.351332 61.689631 106.573986 184.634771
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.971162 9.981686 18.890303 35.433530 64.752705 113.629872 199.859895
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.609391 9.484620 18.337124 35.095481 65.330798 116.555701 208.302779
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.078034 8.615872 17.044662 33.333925 63.289869 114.924015 208.904060
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.943023 8.512599 17.158861 34.151770 65.890299 121.366239 223.660419
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.823193 8.429135 17.302098 35.026765 68.631765 128.165802 239.324700
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.581101 8.074752 16.898866 34.834114 69.383761 131.470308 248.939242
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 3.324860 7.668812 16.365108 34.350901 69.554602 133.724531 256.748612